Options gamma
Expected Move
The range the options market prices for the next session, derived from implied volatility.
Available for Windows 10 and Windows 11
How the expected move works
Source
Implied volatility from listed options, scaled to one session.
One standard deviation
About two thirds of sessions are expected to close inside the range.
Event days
Options price wider ranges ahead of scheduled events such as central bank decisions.
Against the walls
A wall inside the expected move is within reach. A wall outside it is less likely to be tested.
Illustration
Gold sample · 21 Sept 2026 to 3 Nov 2026
Closes against the expected move
Gold. Each bar is one session's close-to-close change. The band is the move priced the session before.
- Expected move
- Inside
- Outside
Sessions that closed inside
22 of 31
71%
Average expected move
54.62
Sessions in the sample
32
Sample data. Live levels update after every US session.
Descriptive statistics on a small sample. Not a forecast. Model estimates of where dealer hedging concentrates. Not trading signals.
Reading the range
Targets and stops
Check whether a target or a stop sits inside a normal session's range.
A widening band
A rising expected move shows that options price more risk ahead.
A close outside
A close outside the band is unusual. It often follows news or a change of regime.
Same units
The band is quoted in the symbol's chart price, so it compares directly with a stop distance.
Across six markets
The last sample session of each market.
| Market | Expected move | Share of price | Reference close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold →XAU/USD | ± 56.70 | 1.45% | 3,921.50 |
| Silver →XAG/USD | ± 1.31 | 2.64% | 49.66 |
| S&P 500 →US500 | ± 78.93 | 1.05% | 7,544.00 |
| Nasdaq 100 →USTEC | ± 482.17 | 1.72% | 27,995.90 |
| WTI Crude →XTI/USD | ± 3.43 | 3.54% | 97.02 |
| Bitcoin →BTC/USD | ± 1,889 | 2.43% | 77,779 |
Questions
How is the expected move calculated?
From the implied volatility of listed options, scaled to one session and converted to the chart price.
How often does price stay inside it?
About two thirds of the time by construction. In the gold sample on this page, a little over two thirds of sessions closed inside.
Is the expected move a price target?
No. It is a range around the last close. It carries no direction.
Where does Arka show it?
In Arka Terminal, next to the gamma levels and the economic calendar. The free plan shows a preview. VIP shows every session.
The terminal built for a new generation of traders
Available for Windows 10 and Windows 11
